Energiepolitik > Fossile Energie / Atomkraft

Vom Rückgang der Ölförderung: Peak Oil!

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Sukram:

--- Zitat ---Oil Shortages to Reappear in 2011, Goldman Sachs Says

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that shortages will reappear in the crude oil market as supply fails to keep pace with a recovery in demand.

Global oil consumption will return to levels seen before the financial crisis by the third quarter of this year, Goldman analyst Jeffrey Currie said in a presentation in London today. At the same time, projects to bring new oil to consumers are still lagging as a result of the credit crunch, he said.

“By 2011, the market is back to capacity constraints,” Currie said in slides shown with the presentation. “The financial crisis created a collapse in company returns which has significantly interrupted the investment phase.”

Crude oil futures traded around $78 a barrel in New York today, having recovered 78 percent last year with the passing of the biggest economic shock since World War II.

Investment into new oil capacity is being held up because “political impediments on the flow of capital are still very large,” Currie said at the conference.

Foreign companies have difficulties exploring for oil in Saudi Arabia and Iran, the holders of the two largest reserves, because of the state’s control of production in the former and economic sanctions against the latter.

“It’s as good as it’s going to get right now in terms of supply growth,” Currie said.

Last month Goldman predicted that crude would average $90 a barrel in 2010 and $110 per barrel in 2011. That makes Goldman’s outlook for this year joint-highest among 38 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
--- Ende Zitat ---

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=axnm2BeGMveI

Sukram:
http://my.contentserver24.de/content/news/images/IEA/20100115OMR01.2010.gif

2010=Schätzung

Wir alle wissen, was 2008 war ;-)

http://www.oilmarketreport.org/

Sukram:
Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years

• Virgin chief and fellow business leaders call for action
• Energy crisis threatens to be more serious than credit crunch

Sir Richard Branson and fellow leading businessmen will warn ministers this week that the world is running out of oil and faces an oil crunch within five years.

The founder of the Virgin group, whose rail, airline and travel companies are sensitive to energy prices, will say that the  coming crisis could be even more serious than the credit crunch.

\"The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well,\" Branson will say.

\"Our message to government and businesses is clear: act,\" he says in a foreword to a new report on the crisis. \"Don\'t let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did.\" ...

...

Sukram:

--- Zitat ---Original von Sukram
- China voraussichtlich Exportweltmeister:
quote]

Vor wenigen Monaten erst hat China die USA als größter Autoabsatzmarkt überholt; im Januar wurden aber schon fast doppelt so viele Autos verkauft als in den USA:



...China\'s gesamte Autoverkäufe, aus Light Vehicle Sales, inkl. Busse und LKWs stiegen im Januar auf 1,6642 Millionen Einheiten, ein Anstieg von +124% zum Vorjahresmonat. ...
--- Ende Zitat ---

Sukram:
Auf dem WWF hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende des französischen Ölkonzerns Total ebenfalls mit dem Schweigekartell gebrochen; Er sprach davon, dass Peak Oil in den nächsten zehn Jahren zu erwarten sei.

Desmarast hält eine Förderung von 95 Millionen bpd für das maximal Mögliche; Mitte 2008 auf dem Höhepunkt der jüngsten Preisexplosion und vor den ökonomischen Einbrüchen in den Industriestaaten wurden etwas über 80 Millionen Barrels (159 Liter) gefördert:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gTgKcDRXAE-rs98KIek1keud_kxA

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